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@theMarket: Good News on Economy Is Bad News for Stock Market
By Bill Schmick,
03:57PM / Friday, December 23, 2022
The good news on the economy has been bad news for the stock market. That's been the name of the game for the last several months. This week, we had more of the same.   The third and final revision of the U.S. third-quarter 2022 Gross Domestic Product came out on Thursday, Dec. 22. It was revised up to an annual rate of 3.2 percent from 2.9 percent. That's a sizable increase. The engine behind that growth was consumer spending and U.S. exports.   On the unemployment front, jobless claims for last week were roughly flat versus the previous week. That indicates that employment is still running hot. Neither of those data points gives the Fed any reason to

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The Retired Investor: Are Christmas Trees Worth It?
By Bill Schmick,
04:33PM / Thursday, December 22, 2022
As Christmas arrives around the nation this weekend, tardy consumers are hitting the neighborhood Christmas tree lots and farms in droves. Late-coming artificial tree buyers are finding slim pickings at big-box stores as well. This is despite an average price increase this season of between 5 percent-15 percent.   Americans will spend nearly $6.6 billion on Christmas trees this season, according to the National Christmas Tree Association (NCTA). NCTA predicts consumers will pay an average of $86.59 for a live tree, and $122.60 for an artificial tree. Many shoppers could pay much more than that.   Last year, 75 percent of U.S. households, or 94 million homes,

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@theMarket: Markets at Odds With the Fed
By Bill Schmick,
09:56AM / Saturday, December 17, 2022
"Don't fight the Fed" is an oft-quoted market saying that has remained sage advice for the past decade or two. Recently, however, it appears investors are thumbing their noses at that advice.   This week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his FOMC members released yet another warning that they see a long drawn-out battle with inflation that will last well into next year. Given the decline in bond yields and the rise in equity indexes, the financial markets appear to disagree. Who will turn out to be right has major implications for what happens to financial markets into the New Year.   The recent good news on the inflation front — lower monthly

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The Retired Investor: Why the Stock Market Needs to Decline
By Bill Schmick,
12:48PM / Friday, December 16, 2022
After a year where the stock averages have declined anywhere from 7 percent to 30 percent, the last thing investors want is to see further downside. The problem is that a surging stock market is the last thing the Fed wants to see in its battle to reduce inflation.   It is common knowledge that the Fed does not want to see a robust equity market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his merry men have never said so explicitly, but they are monitoring the ups and downs of the market closely. When they perceive that price action is getting out of hand, one or more FOMC members step up and try to talk the markets down.   Several times this year when the animal spirits of

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The Retired Investor: Financial Markets Face Year of Unknowns
By Bill Schmick,
04:45PM / Thursday, December 08, 2022
Historically, mid-term election years are notoriously periods of underperformance in the stock market. The post-election year is a different story altogether. Will 2023 be one of those years?   The average return for the stock market in the 12 months after elections has been 16.3 percent.   2022 will qualify in history as one of those underperforming mid-term election years. To date, the benchmark S&P 500 Index, has lost roughly 20 percent thus far and may end the year even lower.   Historically, looking back to 1932, S&P 500 returns have averaged 14 percent in a split Congress and 13 percent in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic

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