The Retired Investor: Economic Storm Clouds Could Be Just Around the CornerBy Bill Schmick,
04:17PM / Thursday, October 03, 2024 | |
The U.S. economy continues to grow, fueled by generous fiscal spending in an election year, robust corporate earnings, and a consumer willing to keep spending. The Federal Reserve Bank's loosening of monetary policy last month also promises to boost growth.
That dovetails with my expectations, at least in the short term. I expect economic growth will continue to show decent numbers when the third-quarter GDP data is released. At the same time, we should see additional modest progress in reducing inflation. September's CPI inflation data, however, could mark the low for this inflation cycle, in my opinion.
That is certainly not the consensus view. 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: My Economic Outlook into 2025By Bill Schmick,
02:29PM / Friday, September 27, 2024 | |
On the back of last week's half-point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank, equities and many commodities rallied anticipating continued growth in the U.S. economy. Why, therefore, did bond prices plunge?
Normally, after the Federal Reserve Bank begins an interest rate-cutting cycle, bond prices rally, and yields fall. But not this time. Economists were scratching their heads all week looking for answers. The explanation is straightforward.
For weeks before the meeting, many traders were betting that the Fed would be too slow to cut interest rates. And when and if they did it would be a small cut. That delay increased the probability that 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Deals Coming Back in Some Consumer AreasBy Bill Schmick,
04:45PM / Thursday, September 19, 2024 | |
Consumers have been bludgeoned for years by higher prices. In this era of inflation, discounts disappeared as prices of everyday items climbed higher and higher each year. It has been a long time, but value is finally returning in various consumer areas.
This summer could be called the season of markdowns as corporations across America have become concerned that price-sensitive consumers have been trading down to cheaper goods and services. Many companies have seen sales decline as discount stores and labels have taken market share.
While the Federal Reserve Bank and the Biden administration applaud the progress made on inflation, the truth for the consumer 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Fewer Babies Threaten Future U.S. Economic Growth.By Bill Schmick,
04:37PM / Thursday, September 12, 2024 | |
The fertility rate in the United States has fallen by 3 percent since 2022. That is a historic low and marks the second yearly decline in a row. How will that impact the economy?
In the simplest terms, if you have lower population growth then you will have fewer people producing goods and services. That will result in slower economic growth. But it is not the only impact. A shrinking workforce will also mean there are fewer people paying taxes.
In a country like ours that has seen decades of increased spending and higher debt, the question becomes who will pay this growing obligation.
As our deficits expand at an increasing rate, while the 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Precious Metals Normally Fall in Septemberby Bill Schmick,
04:22PM / Thursday, September 05, 2024 | |
As one of the best-performing areas of the financial markets this year, gold and silver have been added to many investors' portfolios. And while every dip has been used as an excuse to buy, bulls should hold off a bit when making any new purchases.
The price of gold is up more than 20 percent and silver gained over 17 percent so far this year. Despite the sector's performance, there are many portfolio managers out there who won't touch precious metals and probably never will. "Too speculative," "impossible to analyze," and "we are not in the business of gambling" are all explanations I have heard through the 0 Comments
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