@theMarket: Fed Expected to Begin Interest Rate Cuts Next WeekBy Bill Schmick,
03:50PM / Friday, September 13, 2024 | |
After two years of monetary tightening, the Federal Reserve Bank is poised to begin loosening its policy. Is the event already priced in or will the stock market celebrate with new highs?
It may depend on how deep a cut the Fed is willing to make. In my opinion, in the long run it won't matter unless you are one of those day-to-day options traders who live or die based on the next trade. Nonetheless, in a market that may well hit a new high next week, what the Fed does and how it talks about future cuts will be important.
Some believe the Fed should cut one-half of a percent (50 basis points), while others are in the camp that it will only need a 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Fewer Babies Threaten Future U.S. Economic Growth.By Bill Schmick,
04:37PM / Thursday, September 12, 2024 | |
The fertility rate in the United States has fallen by 3 percent since 2022. That is a historic low and marks the second yearly decline in a row. How will that impact the economy?
In the simplest terms, if you have lower population growth then you will have fewer people producing goods and services. That will result in slower economic growth. But it is not the only impact. A shrinking workforce will also mean there are fewer people paying taxes.
In a country like ours that has seen decades of increased spending and higher debt, the question becomes who will pay this growing obligation.
As our deficits expand at an increasing rate, while the 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Precious Metals Normally Fall in Septemberby Bill Schmick,
04:22PM / Thursday, September 05, 2024 | |
As one of the best-performing areas of the financial markets this year, gold and silver have been added to many investors' portfolios. And while every dip has been used as an excuse to buy, bulls should hold off a bit when making any new purchases.
The price of gold is up more than 20 percent and silver gained over 17 percent so far this year. Despite the sector's performance, there are many portfolio managers out there who won't touch precious metals and probably never will. "Too speculative," "impossible to analyze," and "we are not in the business of gambling" are all explanations I have heard through the 0 Comments
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@theMarket: September Into October Could Be Bumpy for StocksBy Bill Schmick,
03:36PM / Friday, August 30, 2024 | |
We enter September with the three major averages close to or above yearly highs. Momentum is still on the side of the bulls. As such, in the next week or so, markets could attempt to scale those heights and possibly better them.
It is what happens next that concerns me. The next two months are seasonally the worst period for the stock market. However, investors also expect the Federal Reserve Bank to cut interest rates at their meeting on Sept. 17-18. That is normally a bullish development for stocks. We won't know if the Fed will cut rates, but the markets are betting heavily on that outcome.
The macroeconomic data this week certainly reinforced those 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: How the U.S. Can Manage Its Increasing Debt LoadBy Bill Schmick,
04:12PM / Thursday, August 29, 2024 | |
U.S. deficits at $35.225 trillion are going through the roof and interest payments on our debt load account for an increasing share of gross domestic product. We are not alone in facing this trend. The question is what monetary and fiscal policymakers will do about it.
The time-honored, go-to strategy that has worked well for decades among nations in times like these is to devalue one's currency. How does that work?
Readers need to understand that the level of interest rates plays an important role in currency devaluation. For example, the U.S. dollar and U.S. interest rates work hand in hand. When traders buy dollars, they don't just keep their 0 Comments
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