After two years of monetary tightening, the Federal Reserve Bank is poised to begin loosening its policy. Is the event already priced in or will the stock market celebrate with new highs?

 

It may depend on how deep a cut the Fed is willing to make. In my opinion, in the long run it won't matter unless you are one of those day-to-day options traders who live or die based on the next trade. Nonetheless, in a market that may well hit a new high next week, what the Fed does and how it talks about future cuts will be important.

 

Some believe the Fed should cut one-half of a percent (50 basis points), while others are in the camp that it will only need a 25-basis point cut. Does that matter in the scheme of things? My answer is no. There are arguments on both sides of that decision. I come down on the side of a lesser cut. Anything more might signal that the Fed may be worried that growth and jobs are slowing too rapidly.

 

In addition, the U.S. central bank has preferred to use consecutive smaller cuts rather than big ones. The Fed might also be sensitive to the political environment as well. Although the Fed argues it is a non-political organization, one of the candidates, Donald Trump, has already warned Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (who he appointed) that the Fed should refrain from cutting rates until after the November elections. He said a cut would aid the incumbents in a tight race where the economy is one of the key areas of contention. The facts are that no matter what the Fed does, both sides will claim politics played a hand in the decision.

 

The last inflation data before the meeting came in mixed this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August registered a 0.2 percent increase, the lowest since early 2021. That was about what economists expected although the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3 percent. That was higher than forecast.

 

At first, skittish traders did not take kindly to that number. In the bond market, the betting on a 50-basis point cut next week plummeted. Stocks fell in the morning but bounced back as traders realized that a 25-basis point cut was still in the cards. The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in mostly cooler for August, which cheered the markets on Thursday, and betting on a bigger cut rose once again.

 

With so many cross currents, the key macroeconomic variables I am watching for direction are the labor market, the dollar, and bond yields. Weaker job growth will be the Feds' chief concern. A weakening dollar will be good for equities unless we see our currency fall out of bed overnight as it did in August during the yen-carry trade debacle.

 

Lower yields in the bond market have provided a cushion for stocks thus far. That should continue unless and until the story changes. If the labor and growth data weaken sharply, for example, that would evoke worries of a hard landing. In that case, yields would continue to drop but so would equities for all the wrong reasons. Treasury bonds would be seen as a flight to safety, while stocks fell on recessionary fears. 

 

Beyond the economic data, the most popular show of the week was the presidential debate. It was entertaining but less informative than Wall Street would have liked. As far as the economy is concerned, nothing of substance was discussed in depth. While many may bemoan the slogan-filled nature of the race thus far, do not be surprised. It is not that kind of race.

 

Few among us are undecided. Those that are, will largely make their decision based on a particular issue. Inflation is coming down, but not enough. Growth is still robust but slowing. Jobs are still available, but there are fewer. Many other issues such as abortions, immigration, crime, etc. may be more important than economic concerns to undecided voters.

 

Unless one or the other candidate pulls ahead substantially in the weeks ahead, markets will remain volatile and in a trading range until the election. My advice is not to be pulled into the day-to-day ups and downs of the market. This week, for example, we saw spikes in sectors such as solar energy (up), insurance (down), pot stocks (up and down), and crypto (up) all based on a positive or negative sentence or two from the candidates.

 

Last week, I suggested that we could see a bounce in stocks. We did. The S&P 500 Index was up more than 3 percent while the NASDAQ gained 5 percent. But remember, as I have cautioned readers for the last few weeks, we are in a seasonally bad time for equities. The final two weeks in September are especially so, and the Fed's FOMC announcement will be on Sept. 17-18. Chances are that markets will hold on to these gains next week at least up until the Fed meeting. However, be prepared for more volatility after that if not before.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.