@theMarket: Economy's Mixed Messages Support Market GainsBy Bill Schmick,
02:54PM / Friday, May 02, 2025 | |
Wednesday's release of the nation's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product stunned investors since it was the first quarterly decline in the economy since 2022. Looking beyond the headline number, however, the results told a different story.
At first blush, the minus-0.3 percent decline in GDP sent stocks lower, with the NASDAQ down 3 percent on the day at one point. The culprit behind the numbers was a 41.3 percent rise in imported goods and services. If we import more than we export, as we did substantially in the quarter, the economy's growth decreases.
The surge in imports began after the November 2024 elections and continues today. These 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Markets Contend With Conflicting Tariff HeadlinesBy Bill Schmick,
02:56PM / Friday, April 25, 2025 | |
This week, statements from the president and his treasury secretary indicating a possible thaw in relations with China triggered a bout of FOMO among traders. Markets gained more than 6 percent for the week on a hope and a prayer. Was it justified?
On Monday, investors woke up to President Trump calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell "a major loser." That triggered fears that Trump was on the verge of dismissing the head of the U.S. central bank. Markets appeared to be once again rolling over. The stock market cratered.
By the end of the day, markets were off by more than 2 percent. It looked as if stocks were ready to roll over and at least re-test if 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Fed Disappoints, Markets Swoon, While Tariff Talks ContinueBy Bill Schmick,
01:41PM / Friday, April 18, 2025 | |
On Thursday, investors hoped that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in Chicago at the Economic Club, would assure markets that he would backstop any downside from President Trump's policies. They were disappointed.
Even worse, he said, "The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."
The fact that the leader of the world's most powerful central bank seemed to confirm the worst fears of investors triggered another $1 trillion sell-off in equity markets. The president quickly posted his 0 Comments
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@theMarket: The Trump Tariff PauseBy Bill Schmick,
02:08PM / Friday, April 11, 2025 | |
This week, the stock markets had one of their largest single-day rallies since 2012, after President Trump suddenly put some of his tariffs on hold for 90 days. He then gave back half of it the following day. Investors wonder if this was a bear market bounce or if it could mean something more.
Media sources are crediting the market melt-up to various factors. Some believe Trump decided to soften his stance on tariffs after spending the weekend huddled with his U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent, who the business community believes is a voice of reason in a room full of tariff advocates, had urged the president to pause his reciprocal tariff deadline. He 0 Comments
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@theMarket: 'Demolition Day' in global marketsBy Bill Schmick,
02:21PM / Friday, April 04, 2025 | |
Stocks fell to kick off the second quarter following the worst quarterly performance for equities in the past three years. The culprit was Wednesday evening's "Liberation Day" announcement of tariffs far worse than the markets expected.
By now, most readers know that the president not only levied a 10 percent tariff on all nations across the board, but he also added reciprocal tariffs to that total on individual nations. China was signaled out for the harshest treatment with a combined 54 percent total round of tariffs. In response, China announced 34 percent tariffs on U.S. goods.
As I warned readers last week, these tariffs would be 0 Comments
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