@theMarket: Economy's Mixed Messages Support Market GainsBy Bill Schmick,
02:54PM / Friday, May 02, 2025 | |
Wednesday's release of the nation's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product stunned investors since it was the first quarterly decline in the economy since 2022. Looking beyond the headline number, however, the results told a different story.
At first blush, the minus-0.3 percent decline in GDP sent stocks lower, with the NASDAQ down 3 percent on the day at one point. The culprit behind the numbers was a 41.3 percent rise in imported goods and services. If we import more than we export, as we did substantially in the quarter, the economy's growth decreases.
The surge in imports began after the November 2024 elections and continues today. These 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: For Whom the Tariffs TollBy Bill Schmick,
04:38PM / Thursday, May 01, 2025 | |
As the flow of container ships to the U.S. slows and the number of trucks needed to distribute Chinese goods declines, retail shelves will soon begin to empty. Unless the tariff war is reversed, consumers should expect shortages.
Tariffs (so the story goes) will fuel a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, leading to higher middle-class wages and more stable families and communities. This manufacturing resurgence will promote research, development and innovation leading to economy-wide productivity gains.
History and most economists indicate that tariffs will not deliver the desired benefits. But let's not be naysayers. After all, most Americans believe that 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Markets Contend With Conflicting Tariff HeadlinesBy Bill Schmick,
02:56PM / Friday, April 25, 2025 | |
This week, statements from the president and his treasury secretary indicating a possible thaw in relations with China triggered a bout of FOMO among traders. Markets gained more than 6 percent for the week on a hope and a prayer. Was it justified?
On Monday, investors woke up to President Trump calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell "a major loser." That triggered fears that Trump was on the verge of dismissing the head of the U.S. central bank. Markets appeared to be once again rolling over. The stock market cratered.
By the end of the day, markets were off by more than 2 percent. It looked as if stocks were ready to roll over and at least re-test if 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Tax-Deferred Retirement Account? Don't PanicBy Bill Schmick,
04:07PM / Thursday, April 24, 2025 | |
Victor R.
What to do in times of uncertainty?
Trillions of dollars in hard-earning savings have been erased from retirement accounts in what seems to be a blink of an eye. One year's worth of savings gone in a matter of weeks. The decision to sell, buy, or hold has never been more difficult.
In the private sector, more than 50 percent of Americans own stocks in their tax-deferred retirement accounts. That total has been increasing, thanks to the market gains since the pandemic and new federal and state rules that require more companies to offer employees access to 401(k)s through the workplace. Congress has also authorized a new rule that goes 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Fed Disappoints, Markets Swoon, While Tariff Talks ContinueBy Bill Schmick,
01:41PM / Friday, April 18, 2025 | |
On Thursday, investors hoped that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in Chicago at the Economic Club, would assure markets that he would backstop any downside from President Trump's policies. They were disappointed.
Even worse, he said, "The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."
The fact that the leader of the world's most powerful central bank seemed to confirm the worst fears of investors triggered another $1 trillion sell-off in equity markets. The president quickly posted his 0 Comments
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