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@theMarket: Recession: 'Certainly a Possibility'
By Bill Schmick,
05:02PM / Friday, June 24, 2022
"Certainly a Possibility."    Those were the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during testimony to the U.S. Senate banking Committee on Wednesday, June 22. Investors took his warning in stride, instead of plummeting. That may indicate markets are ready for another relief rally.   Powell thought the U.S. economy was strong enough to roll with the Fed's punches of higher interest rates, and a shrinking balance sheet without too much trouble. It was the outside factors — the Ukrainian war, China's COVID-19 policy, and supply chain problems — that complicate the outlook. Avoiding the "R" word was

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@theMarket: Inflation Shock Pummels Markets
By Bill Schmick,
04:08PM / Friday, June 10, 2022
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged in May 2022 as gas prices continued to run higher. These results came as a downside surprise to a stock market that has been falling most of the week.   Friday's CPI number for May 2022 reflected an increase of 1 percent, compared to "hot" estimates of 0.3 percent in April 2022. On a year-over-year basis, the gain was 8.6 percent, which is a 40-year high in the CPI. Gasoline prices were a key driver of inflation last month, although Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which accounts for about a third of the CPI, also gained. The problem going forward is that analysts expect gasoline prices will continue to rise in this

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@theMarket: June Still Looks Good for the Markets
By Bill Schmick,
09:53AM / Saturday, June 04, 2022
Thus far, the markets in June seem poised for a further bounce higher. That does not mean we are in the clear throughout the summer, but let's take it one month at a time. Here is what I see.   Between now and June 17, 2022, I am betting for another move up in the equity indexes. We could see a rally that takes us up to the 4,300 -4,400 level on the S&P 500 Index. It will likely be the kind of surge that floats all boats higher as it rises.   The stocks that have been hurt the most this year would be prime candidates to outperform. China, emerging markets, energy, materials, retail, transportation, small caps, tech, mines, metals and even the Kathy Wood

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@theMarket: Corporate Earnings, the Dollar, and the 'W'
By Bill Schmick,
03:43PM / Friday, May 27, 2022
  In case after case, corporate earnings guidance was at best disappointing. Those companies that disappointed saw their stocks plummet, which took the markets down with them. But earnings season is almost over. Now what?   This past week we saw some stocks fall 30-40 and even 50 percent in one day on disappointing results. The volatility on individual stocks has been extraordinary. Many companies who beat on the top and bottom line and gave good guidance saw their stocks climb 15 percent or more in an hour or two, but the overall markets ignored that.   Time was that investors shunned Bitcoin because the crypto currency could move a percent or two a

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@theMarket: Look Out for a Bounce in the Stock Market
By Bill Schmick,
03:37PM / Friday, May 13, 2022
The bears are prowling the corroders of Wall Street. No one questions that, but rallies in downtrends can be breath-taking. Look for one of those short covering relief rallies in the coming week.   Do I know that will happen? Of course not, but when we get as oversold as we are now, the chances are high. If we do bounce in a relief rally it would trace out the first up to the center of my "W" pattern. The bounce won't last long, maybe for a few days or, at best, next week. And then down again. For those readers who may be hoping that at some point we will resume the bull markets of the last decade, give up that notion.   I fully expect another low

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